von click59 » Mo Mai 23, 2016 11:04 am
So heute weitere Downgrades, einer nach dem anderen stuft Swatch zurück.
Heute malt Keppler ein sehr düsteres Bild:
Was macht ihr? bin seit geraumer Zeit dabie und rund 20% im Minus.
Das Potential des Batterien Business wird komplett ignoriert und die Shorties prügeln weiterhin auf die Aktie ein.
Mal schauen wo die Aktie Boden findet, werde meine Position weiter ausbauen, da mir hier zu schwarz gemalt wird!
Gruss
Downgrade from Buy to Reduce,
We downgrade our rating from Buy to Reduce, cutting our TP from
CHF390 to CHF260. We cut our EPS estimates by 24% on average for
2016-18 amid a rapid deterioration in trading conditions, which we
believe has caught the company by surprise. We suspect it may lose
market share with retailers amid old product buybacks by rivals,
tempering any recovery.
Rapid, steep deterioration in trading
We expected at least watch market stabilisation in 2016 but there has
been a rapid and steep deterioration in trading and we now forecast a 6%
decline (see separate espresso). We have cut sales assumptions by 420bps
on average and margin by 190bps for 2016-18.
Swatch Group expected recovery, maintains products, jobs
We believe Swatch Group isn’t prepared for the shift as it has generally
maintained production, its workforce and marketing spending as it
anticipated a recovery. CEO and controlling shareholder Nick Hayek
forecast 5-10% growth earlier this year. As a result, it has probably not
done enough in terms of trimming costs (publicly, it says it has done
nothing, although we suspect there have been moves behind the scenes)
and unsold watch product is likely to lead to further rises in its own balance
sheet inventory and, with its buyback, a net cash drain in 2016.
May lose market share vs rivals who buying back product
Swatch Group may lose market share in 2016 and we see a 7% drop in its
watch sales. Rivals are buying back inventory from under pressure retailers
in exchange for assurances regarding new orders. Swatch Group has said it
won’t buy back product and it also refused to cut watch prices last year in
dollar linked countries, irking some retail partners. As a result, it probably
won’t see much of an immediate rebound in business even if sell out trends
dramatically improve given legacy product in channels.
Buyback ebbs, substantially below consensus, Reduce
We expected a recovery in 2016 after a three-year slide in estimates and
Swatch Group’s stock. We may be seen guilty of capitulating at the bottom.
However, we do not believe we are there yet. We note Swatch Group’s
buyback has recently ebbed (potentially reflecting an inventory tie-up
and/or a likely poor H1 due mid-July) with less support for the stock. On
valuation grounds, at over 17x P/E and at 10x EV/EBITDA the stock is not
particularly cheap on our numbers, which are now 20% below consensus
2016-18. At CHF260, the stock would trade at 15x P/E and 9x EV/EBITDA.
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