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Buy: CHF 215 Price Target

Target Investment Thesis

• Attractive profile given a relatively low risk strategy of leveraging its MMX colon drug delivery technology, and crystallising the value of GI and dermatology portfolios.

• We believe the current share price undervalues marketed drugs Lialda and Uceris for ulcerative colitis, colonoscopy diagnostic MB-MMX, plus the late-stage pipeline notably SIC 8000.

• Our CHF 215 per share Price Target is based on an NPV sum-of-the-parts valuation.


Upside Scenario

Positive MB-MMX Phase III results in detecting CRC risk could add c. CHF 8/share.

Positive rifamycin SV MMX Phase III results in.infectious diarrhoea from the European travellers trial could be worth an incremental c. CHF 3 per share.

Positive CB-03-01 Phase II alopecia data could add CHF 3 per share.

These catalysts, together with a number of smaller events, could boost our NPV derived Price Target to c.CHF 245 per share.


Downside Scenario

MB-MMX failing to sufficiently improve polyp/adenoma detection rates in Phase III could remove c.CHF 65/share.

Rifamycin SV MMX Phase III failure in the European travellers study for infectious diarrhoea could remove c.CHF 16 per share from our valuation.

SIC 8000 setbacks or delays could remove up to CHF 40/share.

Together these setbacks could lower our NPV derived Price Target to c.CHF 80/share.

Jefferies estimated Peaks Sales sind bei Uceris und auch SIC massiv tiefer kalkuliert, dennoch KZ 215.

Ich habe die detaillierte Jefferies Analyse verfügbar (21 Seiten). Falls jemand Interesse hat, so schicke ich diese gerne via email.

[iberico]

Sehr interessant, merci beaucoup